Chapter 1

rson who is credibly going to win the Republican nomination is Romney because A. he has a lot of money B. he has big call championship him C. he seems more likely to grab individual voters than anyone else hypertext transfer protocol://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-26/midwestern-g everywherenors-predict-romney-as-republican-nominee.html in 2000: Florida*, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_swing_states,_2000 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_swing_states,_2004 The person who is believably going to win the Republican nomination is Mitt Romney. On average, Mr. Romney has 35 percent of the vote in an average of four-spot theme poll completed since New Hampshire, giving him a 19-point nothingness over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Republican principal(a) Projections genus Arizona Mitt Romeny choose Projection : 42.5 % Chance Of supercharge : 89% Michigan Vote Projection : 39.9% Chance Of bo ost : 65% Georgia Vote Projection : 38.4% Chance Of reach : 79% Ohio : Vote Projection : 44.8% Chance Of Win : 91% okay : Vote Projection : 46.8% Chance Of Win : 96% Virginia : Vote Projection : 69.9% Chance Of Win : 92% In 13 of the 16 cases, the outlook leading in field polls afterwards New Hampshire won his partys nomination.

In another case, the 1984 Democratic race, two medical prognosiss Walter Mondale and Gary Hart were laced in national surveys at this point in the race, and Mr. Mondale emerged victorious. The lonesome(prenominal) cases where a candidate came from behind to win were in 1972, when Edmund S. Muskie had a narrow! 2-point lead in the polls over Hubert H. Humphrey, solely George McGovern, far natural covering in the polls, went on to win the race, and 2008, when Hillary Clinton had a 9-point lead over Barack Obama after New Hampshire but woolly-headed the nomination to him. mavin way to evaluate the data is through logistic reversion analysis, which gives an estimate of how likely a candidate was to win the nomination based on the size of his national polling lead after New...If you want to get a copious essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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